OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
The Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 is set in the context of record production and abundant stocks of most commodities in 2016. This kept the prices below the peaks experienced in previous decades. Additionally, the projections show that over the analysed period the demand growth will slow considerably, with the only exceptions in least developed countries.
Agricultural trade developments
The food supply will be attained at a stable level, but future growth will be ensured by increasing yields. Yield growth is projected to decrease slightly, but it could be raised by adapting practices especially in regions with improvements margins like Sub-Saharan Africa. Given the demand and supply developments, it is expected that the growth of agricultural trade will slow down to about the half the previous decades’ growth rate. Agricultural trade has proven to be more resilient to macroeconomic fluctuations, than trade in other goods and can be boosted by further market liberalisation.
Food imports will become more important in particular regions – Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East. This might reflect higher demand and lack of natural resources, but also show uneven agricultural development and indicate problems. Next exports are projected to increase from the Americas, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, while imports will increase across Asia and Africa. The concentration of exports in certain regions will make food markets more susceptible supply shocks, rather than demand shocks as in the past.
Conclusions
The calorie availability will rise and is expected to exceed 3000 kcal per day. Nevertheless, food insecurity will remain a critical global concern. Furthermore, the malnutrition in all its form will continue to pose challenges in many countries.
Overall, the Outlook predicts stable supply and demand conditions, but prices of agricultural commodities will remain a subject of considerable volatility and may deviate under pressure from external political and natural factors.
Links
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
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